How We Answer Your Questions
We build custom analytical models to answer the specific questions your family needs answered—using independent, bespoke scenario and risk modeling tailored to your portfolio, constraints, and concerns.
Built on Independence
No Products Sold
We sell clarity, not investments
No Capital Managed
You control your assets
No Commissions
Paid only for analysis
Conflict-Free
Aligned only with you
The Process
Every family has different questions. Some worry about inflation eroding purchasing power. Others about liquidity timing. Some about hidden correlations in their portfolio. Others about when to adjust their allocation.
We do not offer standardized reports. We build custom models to answer your specific questions—using your actual portfolio structure, your real constraints, and your unique concerns as the foundation.
What follows is not a sales process. It is a collaborative analytical journey where we work together to build the models that answer what you need to know.
Understanding Your Position
We don't require full transparency. You provide an abstracted view: asset classes, approximate allocations, liquidity constraints, geographic exposures, leverage indicators. This lowers friction while preserving analytical rigor.
Secure portfolio input without requiring full position-level disclosure
Why this matters: Traditional advisors demand complete transparency, often as a means of control. We recognize that discretion is valuable. Our models work at the system level, not the security level.
Constructing Scenarios
We don't forecast. We map. We identify critical impacting factors—interest rates, inflation, credit conditions, policy shifts, geopolitical shocks—and model how they combine to create distinct future regimes.
Mapping how impacting factors combine to define future economic regimes
Why this matters: Most risk models assume the future looks like the recent past. We assume it doesn't. Scenario construction forces explicit thinking about what could be different, and why.
Analyzing Portfolio Impact
Once scenarios are defined, we run your portfolio through them. We model how capital flows, where losses concentrate, which asset classes provide protection, and what breaks first.
Tracing how scenario stress cascades through different asset classes
Why this matters: Aggregated returns hide structure. A portfolio that appears balanced in calm markets can become dangerously concentrated under stress. We reveal that structure.
Detecting Hidden Exposures
Diversification on paper is not diversification under stress. We stress-test correlations, identify hidden factor exposures, and reveal where assumed independence disappears when it matters most.
Comparing asset correlations under normal vs stress conditions
Why this matters: The illusion of diversification is dangerous. Assets that appear uncorrelated in normal times often converge during crises. This is not a flaw in your portfolio—it is a feature of markets. Acknowledging it is the first step to managing it.
Modeling Liquidity Constraints
Illiquidity is not inherently bad. But illiquidity at the wrong time can force suboptimal decisions. We model cash flow timing, capital lock-ups, and forced-sale scenarios to reveal your survival windows.
Mapping cash needs vs availability across time with lock-up periods
Why this matters: Private equity, real estate, and other illiquid assets offer return premiums. But capital calls, family distributions, and operating expenses don't pause during downturns. We ensure you understand when liquidity mismatches become dangerous.
Building Decision Frameworks
Fear without action is paralysis. We generate pre-commitment frameworks: trigger points, decision boundaries, and "if-then" rules that transform uncertainty into clarity. You decide in advance what you'll do when scenarios unfold.
Pre-commitment rules and trigger-based action plans
Why this matters: The hardest decisions happen during crises, when information is incomplete and emotions run high. By pre-committing to actions tied to observable triggers, you avoid the cognitive load of deciding under stress.
What We Don't Do
We don't make performance promises
Anyone who guarantees returns is selling certainty that doesn't exist.
We don't forecast markets
Predictions fail. Preparation endures. We focus on resilience, not prophecy.
We don't manage portfolios
You retain control. We provide the frameworks. You execute.
We don't sell products
No funds. No structured products. No commissions. Just analysis.
We don't work with everyone
This approach is not for short-term traders or those seeking performance theatre.
Our Principles
Integrated System View
Portfolios are systems, not collections. We analyze cross-asset interactions, feedback loops, and second-order effects that traditional risk models ignore.
Scenario Construction, Not Forecasting
We don't predict the future. We map plausible futures and test your portfolio against them. The goal is not accuracy—it's preparedness.
Stress, Fragility & Coherence Analysis
We identify where your portfolio is vulnerable before markets reveal it. Fragility is not visible in calm markets. It emerges during stress.
Decision Pre-commitment
Clarity under stress requires preparation during calm. We help you decide what you'll do before you need to do it.
Begin the Conversation
This work is not for everyone. It requires intellectual honesty, patience, and a willingness to confront uncomfortable truths about your portfolio. If that resonates, we invite you to begin.